Bitcoin (BTC) may not reclaim $40,000, despite increasing excitement over a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF).In recent analyses, crypto market participants have started to reconsider just how bullish the ETF narrative really is for BTC price action.Trader: “Not sure” BTC price will reach $42,000The dust continues to settle on the United States vs. Binance regulatory bombshell, which involves a $4.3 billion fine and the removal of Changpeng “CZ” Zhao as CEO.Bitcoin sank to one-week lows on the news, but a swift rebound took it back to near 18-month highs within the following 24 hours.At the same time, commentators began to suggest that the enforcement action was a timely move to pave the way for the first U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF.Long expected to be a watershed moment for crypto, an approval — while far from guaranteed — could come in early January 2024.Nonetheless, not everyone sees an approval resulting in a snap BTC price parabolic reaction. Among them is popular trader Bitcoin Jack, who, in a recent X post, cast doubt on BTC/USD even hitting $42,000.“I said 42k. Not sure we get there anymore,” he summarized on Nov. 21.Bitcoin Jack explained that the week’s Binance and ETF news had failed to reshape market dynamics.“Expected any rumour on a Binance vs US resolution to be more bullish than price reflects (reasons: positive for ETF, less uncertainty for investors if there is a resolution), on top of the generally bullish headlines last weeks (minus Kraken, though much of it is more of the same earlier crackdown language recycled),” he continued.Introducing potential downside targets, he noted that while support levels are “clean,” $30,000 may yet come back into play.“Sometimes that what doesn’t happen is the tell,” he concluded.“HTF supports below are clean buy level if it comes. Potential top here or another leg to 42, support around 29-31.”One spot Bitcoin ETF, $1 million BTC?As Cointelegraph reported, other recent forecasts are maintaining the low $30,000s as a retracement zone, in part thanks to liquidity remaining there.Related: Bitcoin ETF hype returns as ‘aggressive bid’ sends BTC price near $38KIn his most recent social media survey, Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, asked followers whether Bitcoin could hit $40,000 or $30,000 first. The result was a near 50/50 split.Its that time again:BTC at $37k now.. which is more likely to come first?— filbfilb (@filbfilb) November 22, 2023
Meanwhile, at the opposite extreme of the ETF issue is Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin adoption firm Jan3.In an X post on Nov. 23, he suggested that Bitcoin could not only hit $1,000,000 per coin as a result of the approval but that hodlers were mistaken in predicting any less.“It has come to my attention that there are some Bitcoiners that don’t think Bitcoin can reach $1,000,000 in a matter of days/weeks after ETF money starts to flow in,” he wrote. “They’re in for a pleasant surprise.”BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingViewBTC/USD traded at $37,000 at the time of writing, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
